El sector inmobiliario y las entidades crediticias en España después de la crisis del 2008

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Leonardo Augusto Tariffi Peña
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1241-6527

Resumen

El propósito de la presente investigación es mostrar el posible efecto negativo en el muy corto plazo del impago del crédito otorgado al sector inmobiliario y de la construcción, sobre los estados financieros de bancos y cajas de ahorro luego de la crisis económica-financiera de 2007-2008 en España. Utilizando el análisis de datos contables e información proveniente de cuentas anuales, se presenta una aproximación basada en la diferencia absoluta entre los resultados de la actividad de explotación de las principales entidades bancarias y los niveles de riesgo de impago del crédito hipotecario otorgado a los hogares, del préstamo para inversión en servicios inmobiliarios y de los montos destinados al sector de la construcción. Sin tomar en cuenta las provisiones en dotaciones netas del sistema financiero español y suponiendo que el total de los créditos dudosos se convierten en fallidos, cálculos a priori de dos diferentes escenarios de quebranto neto al 20 % y 50 % permiten observar que la mencionada diferencia absoluta es negativa tanto en bancos universales como en cajas de ahorros, con la única excepción del caso de los bancos al 50 %. El aumento en el riesgo de impago de la actividad inmobiliaria deterioraba los resultados y los balances de las cuentas financieras en el año 2009. Los resultados obtenidos permitieron conocer con anticipación la relación entre la actividad financiera y el sector de bienes raíces y planteó una nueva manera de estimar previsiones sobre la situación financiera, especialmente sobre las ya extintas cajas de ahorro españolas.

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Tariffi Peña, L. A. (2022). El sector inmobiliario y las entidades crediticias en España después de la crisis del 2008. Economía & Negocios, 4(2), 127–144. https://doi.org/10.33326/27086062.2022.2.1366
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Biografía del autor/a

Leonardo Augusto Tariffi Peña, Universidad Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, España

I am a Venezuelan economist with a Master, DEA and PhD in Economics at the University of Barcelona. I have previous experiences of working in private companies, policy-making institutions and academia. At the end of my studies in Economics at the University of the Andes, I worked at the Department of Quantitative Support of the Central Bank of Venezuela and the Macroeconomic Analysis Unit corresponding to the cooperation between the Economic and Finance Advisor Office to the National Assembly of Venezuela and the Inter-American Development Bank. I also studied the ESOL programme at Kensington and Chelsea College and I obtained experience working at the Research Department of Economics (University of Barcelona), Mediterranean Action Plan (United Nation Enviromental Programmme) and the Center for International Finance (IESE Business School). I have teaching experience lecturing Decision Analysis (European University), Research Methods (University of the Andes), and Epistemology Research (UPEL – IMPM) for undergraduate and postgraduate students. I have published and reviewed in international journals. In my PhD dissertation “Essays on the exchange rate real determinants”, I focused on internal and external imbalances in the global economy and the relationship between current and capital accounts and misalignments in real exchange rates. I also followed a post doctoral program as a research fellow at the University of Pavia where I wrote my last paper "A threshold multivariate model to explain fiscal multipliers with government debt" published at the journal of Econometric Research in Finance. My last affiliations are the CIDIS of the University of the Andes as a Researcher and the Department of Economics of the University of Barcelona as an Adjunct Professor.

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