El sector inmobiliario y las entidades crediticias en España después de la crisis del 2008

Contenido principal del artículo

Leonardo Augusto Tariffi Peña
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1241-6527

Resumen

El propósito de la presente investigación es mostrar el posible efecto negativo en el muy corto plazo del impago del crédito otorgado al sector inmobiliario y de la construcción, sobre los estados financieros de bancos y cajas de ahorro luego de la crisis económica-financiera de 2007-2008 en España. Utilizando el análisis de datos contables e información proveniente de cuentas anuales, se presenta una aproximación basada en la diferencia absoluta entre los resultados de la actividad de explotación de las principales entidades bancarias y los niveles de riesgo de impago del crédito hipotecario otorgado a los hogares, del préstamo para inversión en servicios inmobiliarios y de los montos destinados al sector de la construcción. Sin tomar en cuenta las provisiones en dotaciones netas del sistema financiero español y suponiendo que el total de los créditos dudosos se convierten en fallidos, cálculos a priori de dos diferentes escenarios de quebranto neto al 20 % y 50 % permiten observar que la mencionada diferencia absoluta es negativa tanto en bancos universales como en cajas de ahorros, con la única excepción del caso de los bancos al 50 %. El aumento en el riesgo de impago de la actividad inmobiliaria deterioraba los resultados y los balances de las cuentas financieras en el año 2009. Los resultados obtenidos permitieron conocer con anticipación la relación entre la actividad financiera y el sector de bienes raíces y planteó una nueva manera de estimar previsiones sobre la situación financiera, especialmente sobre las ya extintas cajas de ahorro españolas.

Descargas

Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.

Métricas

Cargando métricas ...

Detalles del artículo

Cómo citar
Tariffi Peña, L. A. (2022). El sector inmobiliario y las entidades crediticias en España después de la crisis del 2008. Economía & Negocios, 4(2), 127–144. https://doi.org/10.33326/27086062.2022.2.1366
Sección
Artículo original
Biografía del autor/a

Leonardo Augusto Tariffi Peña, Universidad Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, España

I am a Venezuelan economist with a Master, DEA and PhD in Economics at the University of Barcelona. I have previous experiences of working in private companies, policy-making institutions and academia. At the end of my studies in Economics at the University of the Andes, I worked at the Department of Quantitative Support of the Central Bank of Venezuela and the Macroeconomic Analysis Unit corresponding to the cooperation between the Economic and Finance Advisor Office to the National Assembly of Venezuela and the Inter-American Development Bank. I also studied the ESOL programme at Kensington and Chelsea College and I obtained experience working at the Research Department of Economics (University of Barcelona), Mediterranean Action Plan (United Nation Enviromental Programmme) and the Center for International Finance (IESE Business School). I have teaching experience lecturing Decision Analysis (European University), Research Methods (University of the Andes), and Epistemology Research (UPEL – IMPM) for undergraduate and postgraduate students. I have published and reviewed in international journals. In my PhD dissertation “Essays on the exchange rate real determinants”, I focused on internal and external imbalances in the global economy and the relationship between current and capital accounts and misalignments in real exchange rates. I also followed a post doctoral program as a research fellow at the University of Pavia where I wrote my last paper "A threshold multivariate model to explain fiscal multipliers with government debt" published at the journal of Econometric Research in Finance. My last affiliations are the CIDIS of the University of the Andes as a Researcher and the Department of Economics of the University of Barcelona as an Adjunct Professor.

Citas

Acharya, V. V., & Schnabl, P. (2010). Do global banks spread global imbalances? Asset backed commercial paper during the financial crisis of 2007–09. IMF Economic Review, 58, 37-73. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2010.4

Agarwal, S., Ben-David, I., & Yao, V. (2015). Collateral valuation and borrower financial constraints: Evidence from the residential real estate market. Management Science, 61(9), 2220-2240. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.2002

Akin, O., García Montalvo, J., García Villar J., Peydró, J. L., y Ray, J. M. (2014). The real state and credit bubble: evidence from Spain. SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 5, 223-243. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13209-014-0115-9

Allen, F., y Carletti, E. (2008). Mark to market accounting and liquidity pricing. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 45, 358-378. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2007.02.005

Allen, F., y Carletti, E. (2013). Systemic risk from real estate and macro-prudential regulation. International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, 5(1-2), 28–48. https://doi.org/10.1504/ijbaaf.2013.058091

Alvarez, F., & Barlevy, G. (2021). Mandatory disclosure and financial contagion. Journal of Economic Theory, 194, 105237. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105237

Asriyan, V., Fornaro, L., Martin, A., & Ventura, J. (2021). Monetary Policy for a Bubbly World. The Review of Economic Studies, 88(3), 1418–1456. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdaa045

Banco de España (2009). Informe de Estabilidad Financiera. https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/InformesEstabilidadFinancera/09/Fic/IEF_Noviembre_2009.pdf

Banco de España (2010). Boletín Estadístico. https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/BoletinEstadistico/bes1010.pdf

Barlevy, G., & Fisher J. D. M. (2020). Why were interest-only mortgages so popular during the U.S. housing boom? Review of Economic Dynamics, 41, 205-224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2020.09.001

Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Nonmonetary effects of the financial crisis in the propagation of the great depression. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper N°1054. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w1054

Blanchard, O., Dell’Ariccia, G., & Mauro, P. (2010). Rethinking macroeconomic policy. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 42(s1), 199–215. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00334.x

Brunnermeier, M. K. (2009). Deciphering the liquidity and credit crunch 2007-08. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(1), 77-100. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.23.1.77

Bucks, B., & Pence, K. (2008). Do borrowers know their mortgage terms? Journal of Urban Economics, 64(2), 218-233. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2008.07.005

Claessens, S., Ghosh, S. R., & Mihet, R. (2013). Macro-prudential policies to mitigate financial system vulnerabilities. Journal of International Money and Finance, 39, 153–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.06.023

Coval, J., Jurek, J., & Stafford, E. (2009). The economics of structured finance. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(1), 3-25. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.23.1.3

Diaz-Serrano, L., & Raya, J. M. (2014). Mortgages, immigrants and discrimination: an analysis of the interest rates in Spain. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 45, 22–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2013.12.004

Galí, J. (2021). Monetary Policy and Bubbles in a New Keynesian Model with Overlapping Generations. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(2), 121-167. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180427

García Montalvo, J. (2009). Financiación inmobiliaria, burbuja crediticia y crisis financiera: Lecciones a partir de la recesión de 2008-2009. Papeles de Economía Española, (122), 66-85. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=3122548

Goldstein, I., & Leitner, Y. (2018). Stress tests and information disclosure. Journal of Economic Theory, 177, 34-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2018.05.013

Gorton, G., & Ordoñez, G. (2020a). Good Booms, Bad Booms. Journal of the European Economic Association, 18(2), 618–665. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvy058

Gorton, G., & Ordoñez, G. (2020b). Fighting Crises with Secrecy. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 12(4), 218-245. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190169

Gourinchas, P. O., & Obstfeld, M. (2012). Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 4(1), 226–265. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.4.1.226

Hirano, T., Inaba, M., & Yanagawa, N. (2015). Asset bubbles and bailouts. Journal of Monetary Economics, 76, S71-S89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.09.008

Iacoviello, M. (2005). House prices, borrowing constraints, and monetary policy in the business cycle. American Economic Review, 95(3), 739–764. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054201477

Jermann, U., & Quadrini, V. (2012). Macroeconomic effects of financial shocks. American Economic Review, 102(1), 238–271. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.1.238

Keys, B. J., Mukherjee, T., Seru, A., & Vig, V. (2010). Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(1), 307-362. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.2010.125.1.307

Lamont, O. A., y Thaler, R. H. (2003). Can the market add and subtract? Mispricing in tech stock carve-outs. Journal of Political Economy, 111(2), 227-268. https://doi.org/10.1086/367683

Martin, A., Moral-Benito, E., & Schmitz, T. (2021). The Financial Transmission of Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain. American Economic Review, 111(3), 1013-1053. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191410

Martin, A., & Ventura, J. (2018). The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles. A User’s Guide. Annual Review of Economics, 10(1), 505-539. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080217-053534

Mayer, C., Pence, K., & Sherlund, S. M. (2009). The rise in mortgage defaults. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(1), 27-50. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.23.1.27

Myers, S. C. (1977). Determinants of Corporate Borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics 5(2), 147-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405x(77)90015-0

Reinhardt, D., & Sowerbutts, R. (2015). Regulatory arbitrage in action: evidence from banking flows and macroprudential policy. Bank of England, Working Paper N° 546. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2015/regulatory-arbitrage-in-action-evidence-from-banking-flows-and-macroprudential-policy

Schularick, M., & Taylor, A. M. (2012). Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008. American Economic Review, 102(2), 1029-1061. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.2.1029

Vandenbussche, J., Vogel, U. & Detragiache, E. (2015). Macroprudential policies and housing prices: a new database and empirical evidence for Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(S1), 343–377. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12206

10.33326

27086062.%Y.%i.%a